{"id":8196,"date":"2023-11-22T11:30:00","date_gmt":"2023-11-22T11:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thezakariagroup.com\/home-prices-still-growing-just-at-a-more-normal-pace\/"},"modified":"2023-11-22T11:30:00","modified_gmt":"2023-11-22T11:30:00","slug":"home-prices-still-growing-just-at-a-more-normal-pace","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thezakariagroup.com\/home-prices-still-growing-just-at-a-more-normal-pace\/","title":{"rendered":"Home Prices Still Growing \u2013 Just at a More Normal Pace"},"content":{"rendered":"
If you\u2019re feeling a bit muddy on what\u2019s happening with home prices<\/a>, that\u2019s no surprise. Some people are still saying prices are falling, even though data proves otherwise. Part of that misconception<\/a> is because people are getting their information from unreliable sources. But it\u2019s also coming from some media coverage misrepresenting what the data really shows.<\/p>\n So, to keep things simple, here\u2019s what you really need to know using real data you can trust.<\/p>\n In the housing market, there are predictable ebbs and flows that happen each year. It\u2019s called seasonality. Spring is the peak homebuying season when the market is most active. That activity is typically still strong in the summer but begins to wane as the cooler months approach.<\/p>\n Home prices<\/a> follow along with seasonality because prices appreciate most when something is in high demand. That\u2019s why there\u2019s a reliable long-term home price trend. The graph below uses data from\u00a0Case-Shiller<\/em><\/a>\u00a0to show the typical percent change for monthly home price movement from 1973 through 2022 (not\u00a0adjusted<\/a>, so you can see the seasonality):<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/a><\/p>\n <\/p>\n As the data shows, at the beginning of the year, home prices grow, but not as much as they do when entering the spring and summer markets. That\u2019s because the market is less active in January and February since fewer people move in the cooler months. As the market transitions into the peak homebuying season in the spring, activity ramps up, and home prices go up a lot more in response. Then, as fall and winter approach, prices still grow, just at a slower pace as activity eases again.<\/p>\n Now, let\u2019s look at how this year compares to that long-term trend (see graph below<\/em>):<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Here\u2019s the latest data for this year from that same source. Just like before, the dark bars are the long-standing trend. The green bars represent what\u2019s happened this year. As you can see, the green bars are beginning to fall in line with what\u2019s normal for the market. That\u2019s a good thing because it\u2019s more sustainable price growth than we\u2019ve seen in recent years.<\/p>\nNormal Home Price Seasonality Explained <\/strong><\/h4>\n
This Year, Seasonality Has Returned<\/strong><\/h4>\n