{"id":8156,"date":"2023-09-27T10:30:00","date_gmt":"2023-09-27T10:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thezakariagroup.com\/why-todays-housing-inventory-shows-a-crash-isnt-on-the-horizon\/"},"modified":"2023-09-27T10:30:00","modified_gmt":"2023-09-27T10:30:00","slug":"why-todays-housing-inventory-shows-a-crash-isnt-on-the-horizon","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thezakariagroup.com\/why-todays-housing-inventory-shows-a-crash-isnt-on-the-horizon\/","title":{"rendered":"Why Today\u2019s Housing Inventory Shows a Crash Isn\u2019t on the Horizon"},"content":{"rendered":"
You might remember the housing crash in 2008, even if you didn’t own a home<\/a> at the time. If you\u2019re worried there\u2019s going to be a repeat of what happened back then, there’s good news \u2013 the housing market now is different from 2008.<\/p>\n One important reason is there aren’t enough homes for sale<\/a>. That means there\u2019s an undersupply, not an oversupply like the last time. For the market to crash, there would have to be too many houses for sale, but the data doesn’t show that happening.<\/p>\n Housing supply comes from three main sources:<\/p>\n Here\u2019s a closer look at today’s housing inventory<\/a> to understand why this isn\u2019t like 2008.<\/p>\n Although housing supply did grow compared to last year, it\u2019s still low. The current months\u2019 supply is below the norm. The graph below shows this more clearly. If you look at the latest data<\/a> (shown in green<\/em>), compared to 2008 (shown in red<\/em>), there\u2019s only about a third of that available inventory<\/a> today.<\/a><\/p>\n So, what does this mean? There just aren’t enough homes available to make home values drop. To have a repeat of 2008, there\u2019d need to be a lot more people selling their houses with very few buyers, and that’s not happening right now.<\/p>\n People are also talking a lot about what’s going on with newly built<\/a> houses these days, and that might make you wonder if homebuilders are overdoing it. The graph below shows<\/a> the number of new houses built over the last 52 years:<\/a><\/p>\n The 14 years of underbuilding (shown in red<\/em>) is a big part of the reason why inventory is so low today. Basically, builders haven\u2019t been building enough homes for years now and that\u2019s created a significant deficit in supply.<\/p>\n While the final blue bar on the graph shows that\u2019s ramping up and is on pace to hit the long-term average again, it won\u2019t suddenly create an oversupply. That\u2019s because there\u2019s too much of a gap to make up. Plus, builders are being intentional about not overbuilding homes like they did during the bubble.<\/p>\n The last place inventory<\/a> can come from is distressed properties, including short sales and foreclosures. Back during the housing crisis, there was a flood of foreclosures due to lending standards that allowed many people to get a home loan they couldn\u2019t truly afford.<\/p>\n Today, lending standards are much tighter, resulting in more qualified buyers and far fewer foreclosures. The graph below uses data<\/a> from the Federal Reserve<\/em> to show how things have changed since the housing crash:<\/a><\/p>\n This graph illustrates, as lending standards got tighter and buyers were more qualified, the number of foreclosures started to go down. And in 2020 and 2021, the combination of a moratorium on foreclosures and the forbearance program<\/a> helped prevent a repeat of the wave of foreclosures we saw back around 2008.<\/p>\n The forbearance program was a game changer, giving homeowners options for things like loan deferrals and modifications they didn\u2019t have before. And data<\/a> on the success of that program shows four out of every five homeowners coming out of forbearance are either paid in full or have worked out a repayment plan to avoid foreclosure. These are a few of the biggest reasons there won\u2019t be a wave of foreclosures coming to the market.<\/p>\n Inventory levels aren\u2019t anywhere near where they\u2019d need to be for prices to drop significantly and the housing market to crash. According<\/a> to Bankrate<\/em>, that isn\u2019t going to change anytime soon, especially considering buyer demand is still strong:<\/p>\n \u201cThis ongoing lack of inventory explains why many buyers still have little choice but to bid up prices. And it also indicates that <\/em>the supply-and-demand equation<\/em><\/strong> <\/em>simply won\u2019t allow a price crash in the near future<\/em><\/strong>.\u201d<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n The market doesn\u2019t have enough available homes<\/a> for a repeat of the 2008 housing crisis \u2013 and there\u2019s nothing that suggests that will change anytime soon. That\u2019s why housing inventory tells us there\u2019s no crash on the horizon.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n
Homeowners Deciding To Sell Their Houses<\/strong><\/h4>\n
Newly Built Homes<\/strong><\/h4>\n
Distressed Properties (Foreclosures and Short Sales)<\/strong><\/h4>\n
What This Means for You<\/strong><\/h4>\n
Bottom Line<\/h3>\n