{"id":8032,"date":"2023-05-16T10:30:00","date_gmt":"2023-05-16T10:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thezakariagroup.com\/the-worst-home-price-declines-are-behind-us\/"},"modified":"2023-05-16T10:30:00","modified_gmt":"2023-05-16T10:30:00","slug":"the-worst-home-price-declines-are-behind-us","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thezakariagroup.com\/the-worst-home-price-declines-are-behind-us\/","title":{"rendered":"The Worst Home Price Declines Are Behind Us"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"The<\/p>\n

If you\u2019re following the news today, you may feel a bit unsure about what\u2019s happening with home prices<\/a> and fear whether or not the worst is yet to come. That\u2019s because today\u2019s headlines are painting an unnecessarily negative<\/a> picture. Contrary to those headlines, home prices<\/a> aren\u2019t in a freefall. The latest data tells a very different and much more positive story. Local home price trends still vary by market, but here\u2019s what the national data tells us.<\/p>\n

If we take a year-over-year<\/a> view, home prices stayed positive \u2013 they just appreciated more slowly than they did at the peak of the pandemic. To get a more detailed picture of some of the trends in the market, we need to look at monthly data.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The monthly graphs below use <\/strong>recent reports<\/strong><\/a> from three <\/strong>sources<\/strong><\/a> to show that the worst <\/strong>home price<\/strong><\/a> declines are already behind us, and prices are on their way back up nationally.<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

The story this more detailed monthly view tells us is that the last year has been a tale of two halves in the housing market. In the first half of 2022, home prices were climbing, and they peaked in June. Then, in July, home prices started to decline (shown in red in the graphs above<\/em>). And by roughly August or September, the trend began to stabilize. As we look at the most recent data for the early part of 2023, these graphs also show a recent rebound in momentum with prices ticking back up. Monthly changes in home prices are gaining steam as we move into the busier spring season.\u00a0<\/p>\n

While one to two months doesn\u2019t make a trend, the fact that all three reports show prices have stabilized is an encouraging sign for the housing market. The month-over-month data conveys a clear, but early, consensus that a national shift is taking place today. In essence, home prices are starting to tick back up<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Andy Walden, Vice President of Enterprise Research at Black Knight<\/em>, says<\/a> this about home price trends:\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cJust five months ago, prices were declining on a seasonally adjusted month-over-month basis in 92% of all major U.S. markets. <\/em>Fast forward to March, and the situation has done a literal 180, with prices now rising in 92% of markets from February<\/em><\/strong>.\u201d<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Selma Hepp, Chief Economist at CoreLogic<\/em>, explains<\/a> the limited supply of homes available for sale is contributing to this positive turn:<\/p>\n

\u201c . . . prices in many large metros appeared to have turned the corner, with the U.S. recording a second month of consecutive monthly gains. . . . <\/em>The monthly rebound in home prices underscores the lack of inventory in this housing cycle.\u201d<\/em>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Here\u2019s What This Means for You<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h4>\n