{"id":7670,"date":"2022-01-06T11:00:53","date_gmt":"2022-01-06T11:00:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thezakariagroup.com\/there-wont-be-a-wave-of-foreclosures-in-the-housing-market\/"},"modified":"2022-01-06T11:00:53","modified_gmt":"2022-01-06T11:00:53","slug":"there-wont-be-a-wave-of-foreclosures-in-the-housing-market","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thezakariagroup.com\/there-wont-be-a-wave-of-foreclosures-in-the-housing-market\/","title":{"rendered":"There Won\u2019t Be a Wave of Foreclosures in the Housing Market"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"358\" src=\"https:\/\/files.simplifyingthemarket.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/05101406\/20220106-KCM-Share-549x300.jpg\" class=\"webfeedsFeaturedVisual wp-post-image\" alt=\"There Won\u2019t Be a Wave of Foreclosures in the Housing Market | Simplifying The Market\" loading=\"lazy\" style=\"display: block; margin-bottom: 5px; clear:both;max-width: 100%;\" link_thumbnail=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/files.simplifyingthemarket.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/05101406\/20220106-KCM-Share-549x300.jpg 549w, https:\/\/files.simplifyingthemarket.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/05101406\/20220106-KCM-Share.jpg 750w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 549px) 100vw, 549px\"><\/p>\n<p>When mortgage forbearance plans were first announced and the pandemic surged through the country in early 2020, many homeowners were allowed to pause their mortgage payments. Some analysts were concerned that once the forbearance program ended, the housing market would experience a wave of foreclosures like what happened after the housing bubble 15 years ago.<span id=\"more-45802\"><\/span><\/p>\n<p>Here\u2019s a look at why that isn\u2019t the case.<\/p>\n<h4><strong>1. There Are Fewer Homeowners in Trouble This Time<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>After the last housing crash, <a href=\"https:\/\/economics.cmail20.com\/t\/ViewEmail\/d\/6DD5AA0E9F6529292540EF23F30FEDED\/5323CD85A2087AFD22947492D9797BBC\">over nine million<\/a> households lost their homes to a foreclosure, short sale, or because they gave it back to the bank. Many believed millions of homeowners would face the same fate again this time.<\/p>\n<p>However, today\u2019s data shows that most homeowners exited their forbearance plan either fully caught up on payments or with a plan from the bank that restructured their loan in a way that allowed them to start making payments again. The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mba.org\/2021-press-releases\/december\/mba-loan-monitoring-survey-share-of-mortgage-loans-in-forbearance-decreases-to-167-percent\">latest data<\/a> from the <em>Mortgage Bankers Association<\/em> (MBA) studies how people exited the forbearance program from June 2020 to November 2021.<\/p>\n<p>Here are those findings:<\/p>\n<p><strong>38.6% left the program paid in full<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>19.9% made their monthly payments during the forbearance period<\/li>\n<li>11.8% made up all past-due payments<\/li>\n<li>6.9% paid off the loan in full<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>44% negotiated work-out repayment plans<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>29.1% received a loan deferral<\/li>\n<li>14.1% received a loan modification<\/li>\n<li>0.8% arranged a different repayment plan<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>0.6% sold as a <\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/terms\/r\/real-estate-short-sale.asp\"><strong>short sale<\/strong><\/a><strong> or did a <\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/terms\/d\/deed_in_lieu_of_foreclosure.asp\"><strong>deed-in-lieu<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>16.8% left the program still in trouble and without a loss mitigation plan in place<\/strong><\/p>\n<h4><strong>2. Those Left in the Program Can Still Negotiate a Repayment Plan <\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>As of last Friday, the total number of mortgages still in forbearance stood at <a href=\"https:\/\/www.blackknightinc.com\/blog-posts\/forbearance-plan-exits-slow-enter-year-end-plateau\/?\">890,000<\/a>. Those who remain in forbearance still have the chance to work out a suitable plan with the servicing company that represents their lender. And the servicing companies are under pressure to do just that by both federal and state agencies.<\/p>\n<p>Rick Sharga, Executive Vice President at <em>RealtyTrac<\/em>, says in a <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/ricksharga\/status\/1474138451465289739\">recent tweet<\/a>:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p><em>\u201cThe [Consumer Financial Protection Bureau] and state [Attorneys General] look like they\u2019re adopting a \u2018zero tolerance\u2019 approach to mortgage servicing enforcement. Likely that this will limit #foreclosure activity for a good part of 2022, while servicers explore all possible loss [mitigation] options.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>For more information, read the warning <a href=\"https:\/\/ag.ny.gov\/press-release\/2021\/attorney-general-james-again-warns-mortgage-servicers-obligation-assist\">issued<\/a> by the Attorney General of New York State.<\/p>\n<h4><strong>3. Most Homeowners Have More Than Enough Equity To Sell Their Homes<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>For those who can\u2019t negotiate a solution and the 16.8% who left the forbearance program without a work-out, many will have enough <a href=\"https:\/\/www.simplifyingthemarket.com\/2021\/12\/21\/the-average-homeowner-gained-56700-in-equity-over-the-past-year\/\">equity<\/a> to sell their homes and leave the closing with cash instead of facing foreclosures.<\/p>\n<p>Due to rapidly <a href=\"https:\/\/www.simplifyingthemarket.com\/2021\/12\/15\/what-everyone-wants-to-know-will-home-prices-decline-in-2022\/\">rising home prices<\/a> over the last two years, the average homeowner has gained record amounts of equity in their home. As Frank Martell, President &amp; CEO of <em>CoreLogic,<\/em> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.corelogic.com\/intelligence\/homeowner-equity-insights\/\">explains<\/a>:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p><em>\u201cNot only have equity gains helped homeowners more seamlessly transition out of forbearance and avoid a distressed sale, but they\u2019ve also enabled many to continue building their wealth.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<h4><strong>4. There Have Been Far Fewer Foreclosures Over the Last Two Years<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>One of the seldom-reported benefits of the forbearance program was that it allowed households experiencing financial difficulties prior to the pandemic to enter the program. It gave those homeowners an extra two years to get their finances in order and work out a plan with their lender. That prevented over 400,000 foreclosures that normally would have come to the market had the new forbearance program not been available. Otherwise, the real estate market would have had to absorb those foreclosures. Here\u2019s a graph depicting this data:<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/files.simplifyingthemarket.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/05101408\/20220106-MEM-Eng-1.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-45804\" src=\"https:\/\/files.simplifyingthemarket.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/05101408\/20220106-MEM-Eng-1.png\" alt=\"There Won\u2019t Be a Wave of Foreclosures in the Housing Market | Simplifying The Market\" width=\"650\" height=\"488\" srcset=\"https:\/\/files.simplifyingthemarket.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/05101408\/20220106-MEM-Eng-1.png 1000w, https:\/\/files.simplifyingthemarket.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/05101408\/20220106-MEM-Eng-1-400x300.png 400w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 650px) 100vw, 650px\"><\/a><\/p>\n<h4><strong>5. The Current Market Can Easily Absorb Over a Million New Listings <\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>When foreclosures hit the market in 2008, they added to the oversupply of houses that were already for sale. That resulted in over a nine-month supply of listings, and anything over a six-month supply can cause prices to depreciate.<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s exactly the opposite today. The latest <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nar.realtor\/newsroom\/existing-home-sales-continue-upward-increasing-1-9-in-november\"><em>Existing Home Sales Report<\/em><\/a> from the <em>National Association of Realtors<\/em> (NAR) reveals:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p><em>\u201cTotal housing inventory at the end of November amounted to 1.11 million units, down 9.8% from October and down 13.3% from one year ago (1.28 million). Unsold inventory sits at a 2.1-month supply at the current sales pace, a decline from both the prior month and from one year ago.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>A balanced market would have approximately a six-month supply of inventory. At 2.1 months, the market is severely understocked. Even if one million homes enter the market, there still won\u2019t be enough inventory to meet the current demand.<\/p>\n<h3><strong>Bottom Line<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>The end of the forbearance plan will not cause any upheaval in the housing market. Sharga <a href=\"https:\/\/www.attomdata.com\/news\/market-trends\/foreclosures\/attom-november-2021-u-s-foreclosure-market-report\/\">puts it best<\/a>:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p><em>\u201cThe fact that foreclosure starts declined despite hundreds of thousands of borrowers exiting the CARES Act mortgage forbearance program over the last few months is very encouraging. It suggests that the \u2018forbearance equals foreclosure\u2019 narrative was incorrect. . . .\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"wpematico_credit\"><small>Powered by <a href=\"http:\/\/www.wpematico.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">WPeMatico<\/a><\/small><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>When mortgage forbearance plans were first announced and the pandemic surged through the country in early 2020, many homeowners were allowed to pause their mortgage payments. Some analysts were concerned that once the forbearance program ended, the housing market would experience a wave of foreclosures like what happened after the housing bubble 15 years ago. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":101010,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false,"jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false}}},"categories":[879,877,102,108],"tags":[],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>There Won\u2019t Be a Wave of Foreclosures in the Housing Market - The Zakaria Group<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/thezakariagroup.com\/there-wont-be-a-wave-of-foreclosures-in-the-housing-market\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"There Won\u2019t Be a Wave of Foreclosures in the Housing Market - The Zakaria Group\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"When mortgage forbearance plans were first announced and the pandemic surged through the country in early 2020, many homeowners were allowed to pause their mortgage payments. 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